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Clydes, cases and cat-astrophes

Nostradamus makes some interesting suggestions. The facts are simple though. In five years' time the disputes bubble will have burst and the M&A guys will be making hay again. At the rate the insurance disputes market is crumbling on rates, it won't be attractive enough for great or even good lawyers - to this end the heads of claims at major insurers have cut off their future talent supply. Clydes will therefore be unattractive (nothing personal) on several levels - its profits will continue to fall unless it restructures; and its levels of debt will become unsustainable or at the very best costly in an economy with rising interest rates. True it will have a big international network but it's no Norton Rose and certainly not magic circle quality. So US merger? Nah - nobody will want the toxicity of culture and debt. Spinning off insurance claims - yes but should have started by now as those who existed Motor did many years ago - Clydes needs to shed the Konsta/Jabbari legacy of Manchester and Oxford. De-equitising and restructuring is a given - particularly to address the issue of a mature chort of senior associates ..and some of that is happening or planned to happen already. Special measures is always a risk - a business strategy based on borrowing to build turnover carries a liquidity risk. Simon Konsta as SP? Nah - Simon had his day in the management sun and it's too soon for most to forget the journey.

24-Jan-2013

3:32 pm